The common wisdom holds that we are so fatigued, disenchanted, disillusioned, fed up or repelled by the current White House occupants, that we are looking to the future in ways we never have before. I cite the first marker of this postulate by pointing to what Bill Clinton has described as the first primary, or " Show Me the Money." It seems that now, as the quarterly reports are being filed, the announced presidential candidates have collectively raised more money faster than ever before.
This is when the hype and the posturing hit the wall and reality rears its ugly head. So all the hopes and dreams of a John McCain, who has been searching diligently for his 30 pieces of silver, and all the hype and bravado of Rudy Giuliani, America's Mayor, are crushed in the wake of the Dashing Mormon from Massachusetts. That's right. Darth Romney, amassing $20 M, has out fundraised Rudy and John McCain.
McCain was busy, wandering the streets of Baghdad in time for April Fool's Day, like the sad clown he's become. Rudy's been pre-occupied with personal concerns. Like hitting out at the press for messing with his wife, who had two husbands before him, and whose professional career included killing small animals for a living, when he wasn't dodging questions about his about to be indicted former police chief/bodyguard, and business partner, Bernie Kerik.
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has been making his robotic presence felt, barely uttering a word about foreign policy! Suddenly he's become viable. Hell! He ran the Olympic Games, why not the country! And so, in the proverbial smoke-filled backrooms all over America, the GOP's power brokers are in panic mode.
Both Thompsons, Tommy and Fred, are on offer. Tommy, the former governor of Illinois and former Bush cabinet secretary, has announced his intention to run for president, while Fred Thompson, lawyer, senator and yes, movie star, was proposed by others. The alacrity with which the possibility of a Fred Thompson candidacy was embraced is almost embarrassing. Now, Fred usually doesn't commit to a role until he's read the script. But let's just say he's mulling this one over.
Problem is, the window is closing. The money scramble is on and there's a finite amount of loose change still rattling around out here. So while the players are all looking for that prize bull (or heifer), the one who can suck all that green oxygen out of the room, the dollars are being parsed and spread thin among the desperate hoards elbowing each other for primacy.
Meanwhile the pas de deux of Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama continues. Hillary filed her report early, and got maximum media mileage out of her $26M war chest. But there are already those thin, stress fractures beginning to emerge. The level of expectations for her is probably higher than for any other candidate in this race. She was First Lady for eight years and has already served one full term in the U.S. Senate. The entire world is on a first name basis with her and she has Bill Clinton. There is no one out here as formidable as the former President when it comes to campaigning or to fundraising. Clinton will only become a liability when the Republican Right choses to make him one during the general election. And they will be much less effective in this regard in 2008 then they ever were.
This is when the hype and the posturing hit the wall and reality rears its ugly head. So all the hopes and dreams of a John McCain, who has been searching diligently for his 30 pieces of silver, and all the hype and bravado of Rudy Giuliani, America's Mayor, are crushed in the wake of the Dashing Mormon from Massachusetts. That's right. Darth Romney, amassing $20 M, has out fundraised Rudy and John McCain.
McCain was busy, wandering the streets of Baghdad in time for April Fool's Day, like the sad clown he's become. Rudy's been pre-occupied with personal concerns. Like hitting out at the press for messing with his wife, who had two husbands before him, and whose professional career included killing small animals for a living, when he wasn't dodging questions about his about to be indicted former police chief/bodyguard, and business partner, Bernie Kerik.
Meanwhile, Mitt Romney has been making his robotic presence felt, barely uttering a word about foreign policy! Suddenly he's become viable. Hell! He ran the Olympic Games, why not the country! And so, in the proverbial smoke-filled backrooms all over America, the GOP's power brokers are in panic mode.
Both Thompsons, Tommy and Fred, are on offer. Tommy, the former governor of Illinois and former Bush cabinet secretary, has announced his intention to run for president, while Fred Thompson, lawyer, senator and yes, movie star, was proposed by others. The alacrity with which the possibility of a Fred Thompson candidacy was embraced is almost embarrassing. Now, Fred usually doesn't commit to a role until he's read the script. But let's just say he's mulling this one over.
Problem is, the window is closing. The money scramble is on and there's a finite amount of loose change still rattling around out here. So while the players are all looking for that prize bull (or heifer), the one who can suck all that green oxygen out of the room, the dollars are being parsed and spread thin among the desperate hoards elbowing each other for primacy.
Meanwhile the pas de deux of Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama continues. Hillary filed her report early, and got maximum media mileage out of her $26M war chest. But there are already those thin, stress fractures beginning to emerge. The level of expectations for her is probably higher than for any other candidate in this race. She was First Lady for eight years and has already served one full term in the U.S. Senate. The entire world is on a first name basis with her and she has Bill Clinton. There is no one out here as formidable as the former President when it comes to campaigning or to fundraising. Clinton will only become a liability when the Republican Right choses to make him one during the general election. And they will be much less effective in this regard in 2008 then they ever were.
Obama's people are doing strategic leaking to the New York Times among other news organizations, with estimates of $20M. He is expected to announce his results any minute. If he'd had bad news, the conventional wisdom surmises, he'd have announced it sooner than later. But by waiting, he allows Hillary her day, lets the news cycle digest the information, and when he announces his results, he'll be center stage and looking very viable, indeed. I believe that if his people are, in fact, leaking the $20M figure, it's a baseline. The actual dollar amount will be higher. By waiting, Obama has seized a strategic advantage that may redefine the entire campaign.
The so-called frontrunners have one or possibly two more quarters at best, to solidify their hold. If a Rudy Giuliani or a John Edwards cannot develop enough momentum through public showings to generate a respectable amount of money, the media will spin it as failure, rejection, a vote of no confidence. And with more and more primaries stacking up regionally, it will be awfully hard to "keep hope alive!"
(Copyright, 2007)
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